Forecast Verification
MOS · TAF · NWS grid vs METAR
station
window
lead
days
Loading archive…
Flight category · last 7 days
Key
- MOS
- Model Output Statistics — raw GFS (MAV) / NAM (MET) output corrected by per-station regression on past METARs
- TAF
- NWS LWX terminal forecast · prevailing + BECMG groups; TEMPO/PROB not scored
- Grid
- NWS hourly grid at KANP · scored on KNAK
- Lead
- valid time − issue time · MOS issue = run + 4 h
- Category
- exact VFR/MVFR/IFR/LIFR match
- IFR CSI
- IFR-or-lower · hits ÷ (hits + misses + false alarms) · POD / FAR on hover
- Wind dir
- observed ≥ 6 kt
- PoP Brier
- 6 h precip ending 00/06/12/18Z · 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip
- Thunder day
- TS / VCTS in any METAR that local day · station or KDCA
- Verifying ob
- METAR nearest the valid hour, ±30 min
← Aviation tools