← Jesse Levine

DC Forecast Discussion

Every forecast is a story. Here's DC's — the headline first, then all four acts · weather hub → · skew-t →

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The big story

Reading the pattern…

Pulling the model grid, the NWS forecast and the latest discussion together to work out what today's one thing is.

Act I · The setup

What's moving the air

The stage the forecast plays out on: a model surface analysis rebuilt live in your browser — air masses, fronts, highs and lows, wind. Scrub the timeline to watch the pattern evolve; hover anywhere for numbers. The note under the map reads the pattern and says why it is (or isn't) raining at DC.

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Move the cursor over the map to sample the model at any point.
air mass (850 hPa temp) cold air advancing warm air advancing H/L centers · thin lines = isobars (2 hPa) streaks = surface wind radar at “now” · shading = model precip at other hours
Act II · The reasoning

What the forecasters see

The story LWX is telling, the atmosphere behind it, and the hour-by-hour at the field. Their full discussion is at the bottom — dotted terms carry plain-English tooltips.

The big picture

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The atmosphere behind it

Hour by hour at KANP

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Full discussion
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Act III · The revisions

How the story gets rewritten

A forecast never stands still — each new discussion quietly rewrites the last. The drift card puts today in the middle: three days back, what KDCA actually recorded against what was called for; three days ahead, how the numbers have moved since the earlier forecast. Below it, word-level diffs (added / removed) show the reasoning itself being revised — open an issuance to read one. New issuances are picked up every 10 minutes.

What moved in the TAF — and why

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Since this morning

Forecast drift — DC, three days back and three ahead

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Loading previous issuances…
Act IV · The verdict

Did it come true?

This morning's forecast against what KDCA's METARs actually recorded — and when they disagree, the model's own hindcast of where the day went sideways.

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